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Over a decade ago, I began asking a simple but important question:
Is it possible to determine intraday market direction?
That question led to years of research, study, and development β including early articles exploring:
how intraday direction might be defined
how measurable movement could improve trading results
Today, that work has evolved into something much larger:
The Intra-Day Momentum Method
A structured, mathematical framework for studying price behavior.
Determining Daily Intra-Day Direction - Is it possible?
Successful speculation starts with observation. Instead of looking at charts, I have designed a methodology for determining intra-day direction based on 'measured moves' and created applications to answer my questions regarding trade-able tendencies and to assist in my research.
PDF Version
Determining Daily Intra-Day Direction - Is it possible?
An updated paper that includes the probabilities of extended levels being reached and ways to prove that trading in the direction of a trend would likely increase a trader's edge.
PDF Version
Does Trend Following Give a Trader an EDGE?
A question that has been left unanswered for centuries. Does trend-following give a trader an edge?
Is a solution out there? How do we answer this question? In order to find an answer, I chose to use The Intra-Day Momentum Method Levels as a starting point for the solution. The goal was not to specifically define a trend but to demonstrate mathematical solutions.
Determining Daily Intra-Day High/Low
The Intra-Day Momentum Method Levels are designed to determine the daily intra-day market direction. The results shown here are presented to demonstrate the model. When applied to over 400 stocks in the S & P 500 from April 2015 through October 2020, we see the following results. The graph below shows the High and Low of the day in relation to The Intra-Day Momentum Levels for this period of time. It demonstrates that the market has a specific price range in which it is most likely to trade.
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The Intra-Day Momentum Method is a more scientific approach to market analysis and risk management. It has been designed for intra-day trading. This method of analyzing market data has been applied to three market based ETFs from February 2022 to January 2023. In this book, Todd goes through the application of the model using eight different approaches. Each approach is analyzed and suggestions for increased improvements are offered. |
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