The New Science of Trading

The premier destination for intra-day analytics for U. S. equities and ETFs.

Probability-Based Levels

This scientific approach has been designed to empower the intra-day trader. It assists the trader by determining the daily direction. The goal of the model is to determine which direction from the Open a stock or ETF would likely close on. This also determines which side of the Open a stock or ETF would move the largest distance in terms of price. This model has shown to be statistically significant over the past five years. The results in the following graphic demonstrate our findings using the model. The model has been applied to over 400 stocks from the S & P 500 (Since April 2015).

Risk Management

Manage risk by using the formula used by professional trader/blackjack player/math professor Ed Thorp.

Defining Patterns for Short-Term Trading

How to use The Intra-Day Momentum Method to help you mathematically define patterns so that you can determine if the patterns have been statistically significant historically.

Extended Levels

The Intra-Day Momentum Method Levels extend out from the Open to three extensions in both directions. By extending the levels out we can define more patterns and determine if trend-following would give a trader an edge. We can determine how far a stock might travel on any given day. We can also define what a ‘Fast Move’ might look like.

Position Size

Size your position according to your risk tolerance.

Does Trading with the Trend Give a Trader an EDGE?

A question that has been left unanswered for centuries. Does trend-following give a trader an edge?

Is a solution out there? How do we answer this question? In order to find an answer, I chose to use The Intra-Day Momentum Method Levels as a starting point for the solution. The goal was not to specifically define a trend but to demonstrate mathematical solutions.

“Does trading in the direction of the trend give a trader an EDGE?”

This is a question that seems to have been a topic of conversation among traders since ‘forever’.  Due to how most technical indicators are calculated, this is not something that can be proven using traditional technical analysis.  Therefore, the goal has been to create a way to answer the question mathematically.

You should be aware that traditional technical indicators require that a time period close before the calculation can be confirmed.  This is a fundamental ‘flaw’ in almost every single technical indicator.  If someone tells you that a stock ‘tested’ a moving average, that’s not always the case.  Why? A moving average is constantly moving. Therefore, it cannot be calculated until the end of the time period to which the indicator is being applied to.  Thus, on a daily chart, the calculation that determines the moving average price is not available until the end of the day.  As a result, it is not a real-time indicator.

In this article, I will demonstrate mathematically how Trend Following is likely to give a trader an edge.  It also helps in reducing risk.

Historical Probabilities of The Intra-Day Momentum Method

The image above shows that the ability to eliminate the possibility of an intra-day reversal increases the success of the levels alone by approximately 6-7%.

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