Quarterly Market Research Brief
Quarter of 2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31
Video Overview
Written report available now. Video overview to follow.
This report summarizes measurable market behavior using the Intra-Day Momentum Method, focusing on level occurrence, observed outcome distribution, and reversal behavior.
The Intra-Day Momentum Method™ is the result of over a decade of research into intraday price behavior.
The data presented here represents a structured quarterly snapshot using a consistent methodology.
Occurrence Overview
| Metric | SPY | QQQ | DIA | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Days | 61 | 61 | 61 | 183 |
| Occurrence Days | 33 | 33 | 37 | 103 |
| Occurrence Rate | 54% | 54% | 61% | 56% |
| Reversal Count | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| Reversal % of Occurrence Days | 6% | 9% | 14% | 10% |
Core Outcome Table
| Metric | SPY | QQQ | DIA | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ML1 Count | 17 | 19 | 18 | 54 |
| Close ≥ ML1 | 11 (65%) | 10 (53%) | 10 (56%) | 31 (57%) |
| Close ≥ Open | 16 (94%) | 16 (84%) | 16 (89%) | 48 (89%) |
| Reversal % of ML1 | 12% | 16% | 28% | 19% |
| MS1 Count | 18 | 17 | 24 | 59 |
| Close ≤ Open | 16 (89%) | 15 (88%) | 17 (71%) | 48 (81%) |
| Close ≤ MS1 | 11 (61%) | 14 (82%) | 10 (42%) | 35 (59%) |
| Reversal % of MS1 | 11% | 18% | 21% | 17% |
| Reversal Count | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
Once directional levels are reached, the data continues to support persistent directional behavior relative to the session open.
When ML1 was reached, price closed above the open 89% of the time (combined)
When MS1 was reached, price closed below the open 81% of the time (combined)
The probability of closing beyond the level itself (ML1/MS1) is lower, indicating:
Directional bias is stronger than full continuation
Reversals remain relatively infrequent (9% of occurrence days), reinforcing the distinction between continuation conditions and reversal conditions.
The significance of IDMM is not the level itself, but:
The change in expected behavior once the level is reached
Supporting Data
SPY Detailed Data →SPY
QQQ Detailed Data →QQQ
DIA Detailed Data →DIA
Data Disclaimer: All statistics and observations presented in this report are primarily derived from end-of-day (EOD) data and may be reviewed against intraday chart data for additional validation. Minor discrepancies may remain where intraday price movement differs from the underlying EOD source data.
This report is provided for research and educational purposes only. The Intra-Day Momentum Method is a framework for studying measurable market behavior and does not provide trading recommendations or real-time signals.
Understanding This Report
Definitions and explanations of the data presented in this report:
View Methodology & Definitions
Research & Framework:
https://www.qatsystems.com