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IDMM-ETFs QAT Systems, LLC The Intra-Day Momentum Method - ETFs

IDMM -ETF Results November 3, 2020

The QQQ reached the ML1 Level shortly after 10 am. The QQQ then rallied to the ML2 level before a late-day sell-off and closed above the ML1 Level. Neither the SPY or DIA reached any level during Tuesday’s trading session.

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IDMM-ETFs QAT Systems, LLC The Intra-Day Momentum Method - ETFs

IDMM -ETF Results November 2, 2020

The QQQ reached the MS1 Level down, not of the IDMM – HP criteria. It closed above the MS1 level. The SPY and DIA did not meet any levels during today’s trading session.

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IDMM-ETFs QAT Systems, LLC The Intra-Day Momentum Method - ETFs

IDMM -ETF Results October 30, 2020

On Friday, the QQQ met the criteria for the IDMM-HP. It reached the MS1 Level down in early trading. This fast move is similar to the fast move down on September 3, 2020. The similarities include coming off an ‘Up Day’, opening in the lower range of the previous day, and breaking the low of the previous day. This pattern may be an indication that a ‘Fast Move’ is tradable. The QQQ continued lower and reached the MS2 Level in mid-afternoon trading. It rallied into the close to close above the MS2 Level.

The DIA and SPY met the levels but conditions were not of the HP model. This research is regarding the ‘HP Model’ and ETFs is relatively new and a work in progress. We will be sharing our findings regarding this research in the coming weeks/months. The SPY met the MS1 and MS2 Levels and closed above the MS1 Level. The DIA met the MS1 Level, but did reach the MS2 Level and closed above the MS1 Level.

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IDMM-ETFs QAT Systems, LLC The Intra-Day Momentum Method - ETFs

IDMM -ETF Results October 29, 2020

The DIA reached the MS1 Level in the first 15 minutes of trading. A rather ‘Fast Move’. It later became an Intra-Day Reversal and closed below the ML1 Level. The QQQ reached the ML1 Level according to the IDMM – HP criteria. It continued higher and reached the ML2 Level before closing above the ML1. The SPY reached the ML1 Level according to the IDMM criteria. It continued higher, reaching the ML2 and closed above the ML1.

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IDMM-ETFs QAT Systems, LLC The Intra-Day Momentum Method - ETFs

IDMM -ETF Results October 28, 2020

All three market-based ETFs gapped down and continued lower on Wednesday. Usually, in a gap situation, you get a move back towards the low of the previous trading session. Not this time.

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IDMM-ETFs QAT Systems, LLC The Intra-Day Momentum Method - ETFs

IDMM -ETF Results October 27, 2020

Tuesday, the DIA reached the MS1 Level down, shortly before 3 pm. It made a shallow pullback off the level, then closed below the MS1. The SPY and QQQ traded in narrow ranges and neither met a level during Tuesday’s trading day.

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IDMM-ETFs QAT Systems, LLC The Intra-Day Momentum Method - ETFs

IDMM -ETF Results October 26, 2020

The SPY and DIA both gapped down on Monday and continued lower. Neither ETF made a strong attempt to return to Friday’s Low. The QQQ opened lower, met the ML1 within the first 15 minutes of trading and became an intra-day reveal around 11 am. The QQQ continued lower meeting the MS2 and MS3 levels before rallying back to just below the MS1 by close.

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IDMM-ETFs QAT Systems, LLC The Intra-Day Momentum Method - ETFs

IDMM -ETF Results October 23, 2020

The QQQ reached the MS1 Level shortly after the Open and formed a base along the MS1 Level before rallying back towards the Open after 1 PM. ‘Fast Moves’ often come from ‘False Moves.’ The SPY and DIA both gapped up and did not meet conditions for The Intra-Day Momentum Method Levels.

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IDMM-ETFs QAT Systems, LLC The Intra-Day Momentum Method - ETFs

IDMM -ETF Results October 22, 2020

None of the ETFs met the criteria for a High Probability setup during Thursday’s trading day. Due to an error in the reported High of the day for the SPY on Wednesday, it appeared initially that the SPY was a candidate. After the data was corrected it no longer met the criteria for the High Probability setup. The SPY and DIA were both intra-day reversals, based on The Intra-Day Momentum Method. The QQQ reached the MS1 and MS2 Levels down and closed below the Open.

SPY Price Quote Discrepancy

Due to an error in the reported High of the day for the SPY, Thursday’s levels were incorrect. The reported High for Wednesday 10-21-20 was 348.68 and the actual High of intra-day trading was 345.66.

This graph shows the intra-day high was 345.66, but was being reported as 348.68
As you can see, the graph shows a High of 348.68, which did not display in the intra-day graph above.

SPY – Corrected Levels

The corrected levels for the SPY were:

  • Upward Limit = 343.74
  • ML1 = 341.41
Due to an error in the High of the day for the SPY on Wednesday, the levels were incorrect that were initially posted. The correct levels were MS1 = 341.41 and the Upward Limit = 343.74. The corrected levels eliminated SPY from the list of potential High Probability Setups.

According to the correct calculation, the SPY was not a candidate for a High Probability setup. When I post to social media, I use the High Probability Setups and not the standard IDMM calculation.

At the end of the day, the SPY and the DIA became intra-day reversals according to IDMM calculations. Both stocks reached MS1 levels according to the standard calculation, but both were not high probability scenarios. The QQQ reached the MS1 and MS2 levels and closed below the Open.

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IDMM-ETFs QAT Systems, LLC The Intra-Day Momentum Method - ETFs

IDMM -ETF Results October 21, 2020

All three market-based ETFs (DIA, QQQ, and SPY) reached the ML1 level up in early trading, shortly after 9:45 AM. All three for the second consecutive day had very deep pullbacks, testing the Low of the day. For the second consecutive day, all three closed below the Open of the day. Markets that have deep pullbacks are less likely to close above the ML1 level. Strong trending stocks do not have a tendency to pull back all that much.

The SPY tested the Downward Limit @ 342.43, this reduced the chance of a Close above the ML1 level significantly.

The DIA comes very close to reaching the Downside Limit @ 281.81 and closes below the Open of the day, for the second consecutive day.

The QQQ comes within .03 of the Downward Limit and closes below the Open, for the second consecutive day.