To find a Higher Probability scenario for the original Intra-Day Momentum Method levels, I made a few observations. I ask a few questions. I want to know, what percentage of the time did the market close above the ML1 if the midpoint from the Open to MS1 had not been reached.
Then answer to this question are in the following image. These results are from applying The Intra-Day Momentum Method to over 400 stocks in the S & P 500 since April 2015.
The problem with this approach is that we are looking back. Because all intra-day reversals will meet this criteria. Also, we have no knowledge which level was met first. Meaning that it is quite possible that the ML1 level was reached before the midpoint to the downside. However, we are just looking for ideas to increase the success of the levels.
My research shows that as long as the midpoint from the Open to the MS1 was not reached, the stock closed above the ML1 over 60% of the time. It also had an increased probability of reaching the ML2 level. As well as the ML3 level.
We will continue this with the same calculation, when the MS1 is reached.