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QAT Systems, LLC

SPY reaches MS1

In a ‘Fast Move’ which occurred shortly after the Open, the SPY reached the MS1 Level down at 380.35. The Intra-Day Fast Moves, which occur at times other than ‘off the Open’ can be considerably more difficult to recognize, as they can occur over multiple bars in ‘time-frame based analysis.’ The SPY went from above the Open to below the MS1 level in less than 30 minutes. The further a market moves in a short period of time, the more overbought/oversold the market would have become. The Upside Limit in the SPY is 383.24. The question to answer is ‘Do you fade or trade the Fast Move?’ It appears that ‘Fast Moves’ tend to pull back and possibly reverse more frequently than a slower move to the levels. Fast moves are likely to indicate that if you want to take the ‘directional trade’, you should wait for a reasonable pullback or a definable pattern such as a ‘Double Top’ or ‘Double Bottom’. Understanding that if the market reaches the Upside Limit, the likelihood of a close below the MS1 would be diminished. According to ‘The Logical Trader’ by Mark Fisher, market-based ETFs, such as the SPY, DIA, and QQQ have a tendency to ‘back and fill’. For this reason, when demonstrating The Intra-Day Momentum Method on these instruments, I typically use the method to define patterns such as Double-Bottoms, Double-Tops, and Pullbacks.

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