The Intra-Day Momentum Method for SPY, DIA, and QQQ for 1-31-22 to 2-4-22
This week, the SPY reached on the ML1 on Monday and Friday. Monday the ML1 was at 445.76. The SPY never reached the Downside Limit and closed above the ML1. On Friday, the SPY reached the ML1 at 449.60, after reaching the Downside Limit. The SPY closed just below the ML1 Level.
My research suggests that if the red level (Downside Limit) below the OPEN is met, the probability of a CLOSE above the ML1 is slightly lower. This is regardless of the time of day the level was met. It also suggests the likelihood of the market reaching the ML2 Level has diminished. As you can see, on Monday 1-31-22 the red level was not reached. On Friday 2-4-22, the red level was reached in early trading. Just as the likelihood of an intra-day reversal increases with a FAST MOVE to the ML1/MS1 Levels. One would tend to think that the earlier the Lower Limit Down is met, the more likely we could see a close ABOVE the ML1 Level. Because the momentum has changed. A move later in the day to the Downside Limit would be less likely to close above the ML1.
The DIA reached the ML1 on Monday (1-31) at 348.70. The Downside Limit was not reached during Monday’s session. It closed above the ML1. On Wednesday (2-2) the DIA reached the ML1 at 355.65. Once again, the Downside Limit was not reached during the trading session. It closed above the ML1. On Thursday (2-4), in a rather Fast Move down, the DIA reached the MS1 Level down at 357.88. During the rally back towards the Open, the Upside Limit at 355.79 was never reached. The DIA traveled to the MS2 Level and closed below the MS1 Level.
On Friday 2-4, the QQQ reached the ML1 Level at 357.92. It had reached the Downside Limit earlier in the day. It closed just above the ML1 Level.