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Study 1 vs. Study 2

Posted on April 10, 2025

What this comparison may bring about in your mind is which is more important, the Entry or the Exit.  The reason this is a valid question is because we are using the exact same prices and entering in opposite directions when there is a divergence in the signals.

The ML1 and MS1 are designed to determine intra-day direction these are the IDMM Levels (Intra-Day Momentum Method Levels).

The ‘Trend’ column or ‘DDI – Daily Directional Indicator’ attempts to determine the most recent short-term trend.

This is the most basic example of the research. The ML1 and MS1 levels are show in their respective columns. The Daily Directional Indicator is show in the ‘Trend’ column.

Study 1: In the above example, all three ETFs would assume a Long position at the ML1 level.

Study 2: In the above example, the SPY and DIA would take a Short position at the ML1 level. The QQQ would assume a Long position at ML1.

Study 1

In the first study (Chapter 14), I use the IDMM Levels, ML1/MS1 as entry.  The entry is in the direction of the Level.  Only one position is assumed each day.  Therefore, the first level reached is always taken in this study. 

ML1 = Long Position

MS1 = Short Position

Exit = Close of the day.

Data for the study:

https://qatsystems.com/bookdata/Study-IDMM.php

Study 2

In the second study (Chapter 15), I use the exact same levels (ML1/MS1) but assume a trade in the direction of the Short-Term Trade as indicated by the ‘Trend’ column.  No matter which level is reached, the Direction of the trade is determined by the short-term trend indicator.

If Trend = Long

               ML1 = Long Position

               MS1 = Long Position

If Trend = Short

               ML1 = Short Position

               MS1 = Short Position

Exit = Close of the day.

Data for the study:

https://qatsystems.com/bookdata/Study-DDI.php

As you can see, the 2nd Study had a lower success rate, but a better W/L Ratio. It also had a better total points gained.

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The Intra-Day Momentum Method

The Intra-Day Momentum Method is a more scientific approach to market analysis and risk management. It has been designed for intra-day trading. This method of analyzing market data has been applied to three market based ETFs from February 2022 to January 2023. In this book, Todd goes through the application of the model using eight different approaches. Each approach is analyzed and suggestions for increased improvements are offered.

During a brief career as a trader, Todd Hudson discovered that the analysis techniques used my most traders were inherently flawed. Oftentimes, the analysis resulted in guesswork. This often led to more questions than answers. After studying numerous methodologies and technical indicators, Todd decided to create a more scientific approach. This scientific approach would be based on risk management and historical patterns. This would allow traders to place trades using historical analysis of these patterns to determine future probable outcomes. The initial goal was to get a sense of the daily direction for intra-day trading.

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