Probability-Based Levels

Defining Levels Relative to the Open

The framework defines a series of levels based on distance from the session open.

These levels are not arbitrary. They are derived from measurable movement and are designed to create a consistent reference structure for evaluating intraday behavior.

Rather than interpreting price action after the fact, structure is established in advance.

A Consistent Reference for Measurement

Once defined, these levels allow price movement to be evaluated in a consistent way across sessions.

This includes:

• how often a level is reached
• how price behaves after reaching that level
• whether movement continues or reverses
• how far price extends relative to the initial structure

This transforms intraday analysis from visual interpretation into measurable behavior.

Observed Behavioral Tendencies

Historical analysis shows that price behavior changes once defined thresholds are reached.

These changes may include:

• continuation beyond the initial level
• stabilization around the level
• reversal toward the open or opposing structure

The objective is not to predict which outcome will occur in a given instance, but to study how these outcomes are distributed over time.

The Role of Reversal Conditions

One of the most important observations is the impact of intraday reversal conditions.

When both sides of the structure are reached within the same session, behavior differs significantly from sessions where only one side is tested.

This distinction provides a structured way to study:

• directional continuity
• failure of continuation
• interaction between opposing levels

From Levels to Research

The purpose of these levels is not to act as signals or predefined trading decisions.

They provide a framework for:

• defining intraday structure
• measuring behavior relative to that structure
• evaluating outcomes consistently across time

This allows patterns and tendencies to be studied with clarity, rather than inferred through subjective interpretation.

Where This Fits in the Framework

Probability-Based Levels serve as the foundation for:

• extended levels
• fast move identification
• pattern definition
• outcome-based research

They are the starting point for defining structure, not the end point of analysis.